The Apple iPhone 12 series has finally been unveiled a few days ago. The four newly launched mobile phones fully support 5G applications and are priced at a very affordable price. Therefore, APPLE has high hopes, hoping that this can set off a wave of phone replacements. However, due to the continued spread of the global COVID-19 epidemic and the unsatisfactory 5G construction in many countries, industry analysts are currently divided in their opinions.
Will the Apple iPhone 12 series be a big seller? The following summarizes analysts’ views and provides moderators’ insights:
1. Support the sales view of Apple iPhone 12 series:
Daniel Ives, an analyst at investment bank Wedbush, and Katy Huberty, an Apple analyst at Morgan Stanley, believe that this is the most important product cycle since the iPhone 6 in 2014. With the blessing of 5G and the replacement wave, about 350 million of the 950 million iPhones in the world this year will be able to catch up with the upgrade wave. Huberty also predicts that iPhone shipments in 2021 are expected to reach 240 million units, surpassing the 230 million iPhone 6 record in 2015.
2. Conservative view on the success of Apple iPhone 12 series:
Harsh Kumar, an analyst at investment bank Piper Sandler, believes that due to the impact of the epidemic, people have become cautious about consumer spending. According to a market survey report, only 10% of iOS users at this stage are willing to upgrade.
In addition, some analysts believe that 5G is still not a necessary application at this stage, and 5G network infrastructure has not yet been fully popularized. Therefore, it remains to be seen whether consumers will impulsively change their phones.
3. Moderator’s opinion:
Moderators believe that Apple’s three major selling points of this year’s iPhone 12 series are full support for 5G, continuous camera improvements (especially night photography), and relatively affordable pricing compared to the previous generation (equal to adding features at a price reduction). There are two major opportunities and one threat factor that affect the popularity of the iPhone 12 series.
A. Nearly 30% of iPhone users have to change their phones:
according to【Audiobooks】According to 2020/1/28 data, the average service life of iPhone has reached 1234.9 days (3.38 years), and 29.3% of iPhone 6s (inclusive) and below have reached the replacement period. Due to the high loyalty of Apple fans, Apple is indeed expected to usher in a huge 20~30% replacement wave business opportunity this year.
2. Huawei has huge demand for high-end mobile phones:
Another big business opportunity for the iPhone 12 series is that under the US’s full-scale ban on Huawei, Huawei is suffering from a shortage of high-end chips and cannot use GMS services. There will be a lot of business opportunities for high-end mobile phone demand in China and Europe.
C. If you change your phone, you may not necessarily choose the iPhone 12 series:
Although there is a wave of iPhone replacements, people’s consumer spending has shrunk due to the continued fever of the new coronavirus. The killer application of 5G has not yet been released and the coverage of 5G base stations is limited. In addition, Apple fans who are still using iPhone6 are not early Birds. It is not necessarily possible to choose the iPhone 12 that supports 5G when switching to the iPhone 12. The possibility of switching to the iPhone 11 series is also not small.
The moderator believes that the iPhone 12’s affordable pricing will put a lot of pressure on sales and price reductions for the Android camp. However, this time there may be a clear hot and cold phenomenon in the initial sales of the iPhone 12. It will be a super seller in areas with high 5G availability and better control of the new coronavirus epidemic. However, it will be unsatisfactory in areas with low 5G availability and great impact from the epidemic.。
Moderator thinks iPhone 12 should be very popular in China, Taiwan, Hong Kong, Australia, Saudi Arabia, South Korea, Kuwait, etc. in the first three months of its launch. Especially in China, if there is no interference from political factors, it should deliver very impressive results; the United States, Canada, Europe and Japan , limited by poor 5G coverage and the impact of the epidemic, sales performance should only be unsatisfactory, and will not skyrocket until the epidemic gradually eases; as for India, Central and South America, Southeast Asia and Africa, which have been hit hard by the epidemic and have not yet launched 5G, they should still use 4G after price reduction Mainly iPhone!
Source: KOCPC Chinese