People who want to build a computer or upgrade memory in the past two years may have to be mentally prepared. Recently, the market has seen more pessimistic forecasts. According to foreign media reports, financial institution Jefferies recently held an expert meeting with memory consultants and mentioned that memory prices may continue to rise sharply in the second half of 2026. The average selling price may increase by 40 to 50% quarter-on-quarter in the third quarter, and may increase by another 30-40% in the fourth quarter. The real relaxation may not be seen until 2028 at the earliest.
The memory price increase may not be over yet: experts predict that it will increase by another 40 to 50% in Q3, and there will be a chance of easing in 2028 at the earliest.
Wccftech The report pointed out that memory prices may increase by 40% to 50% in the third quarter of 2026 compared with the second quarter, and may continue to increase by 30% to 40% in the fourth quarter. Even by 2027, prices may increase by 40 to 45% annually. The more optimistic part is that in 2028, as production capacity increases and demand may slow down, the average selling price may fall by 15 to 20%.
It should also be noted that the “average selling price” mentioned here can be understood as the price in the supply chain and contract market, not the retail price of a single RAM or a single SSD that we see on the channel. At the same time, retail prices are also affected by brand, inventory, channel promotions, and specification combinations. Sometimes the response is slow, and sometimes it is amplified by shortages and price speculation. However, if the direction is to keep increasing prices, it will eventually be slowly reflected on the consumer side.
The main reason for this wave of price increases is, of course, still AI. Large-scale AI model training and inference now require large amounts of high-bandwidth memory HBM, which affects the entire DRAM capacity configuration. When memory factories have limited production capacity, they will give priority to AI server customers with high bids, long contracts, and high demand. Generally speaking, markets such as PCs, laptops, consumer SSDs, and mobile phones will be pushed to the back.
Image source:Wccftech
Another financial institution, Aletheia Capital, had previously given relevant forecasts, but the magnitude was not as exaggerated as Jefferies’ statement.
Aletheia estimates that the average selling price of server DRAM will rise by a further 30% in the third quarter of 2026, and may rise by another 10 to 15% in the fourth quarter. Meanwhile, HBM average selling prices are expected to double in 2027 from the previous year. In addition, the value of memory components in AI hardware systems will significantly increase from more than 40% in 2025 to more than 70% in 2027, indicating that memory is gradually becoming one of the most critical components in AI hardware.
Although the market has recently been discussing that China’s memory production expansion may be able to solve this problem, the production capacity will not be opened until 2027, so there will be some time. If it goes well, there is a chance that the second half of 2027 will put downward pressure on prices.
However, the expert cited by Jefferies this time has a conservative view. The expert believes that Chinese memory factories may have a limited impact on the global market in 2026 and 2027. The main reason is that the technology gap still exists, especially for high-end products, which cannot be filled immediately by expanding production alone. Chinese manufacturers do have major names like CXMT continuing to expand and starting to offer DDR5 products, but it is still very difficult to fill the gap created by the global AI and consumer markets in a short period of time.
Therefore, for players, it is recommended to separate needs and wants to upgrade. It is no longer enough for work needs and games, so buy it when there is a reasonable price, don’t wait for the price to drop. If it is enough for now and you just want to upgrade from 32GB to 64GB, you can wait and see.
Source: KOCPC Chinese