Tianfeng International Securities analyst Ming-Chi Kuo, who specializes in analyzing the Apple industry chain, released a report on his X platform on Tuesday (March 11), predicting that Apple’s MacBook Neo notebook shipments will reach 4.5 to 5 million units in 2026. This data demonstrates Apple’s strong confidence and market appeal. This item will also become the core engine of Apple’s performance growth in 2026.
MacBook Neo leads growth momentum
Ming-Chi Kuo predicts that MacBook Neo will drive the total shipments of MacBook models to 25 million units in 2026, which is expected to increase by 20~25% year-on-year, returning to the peak of the epidemic period and becoming the only growth highlight in the global notebook market in 2026.
Prior to this, market research organization TrendForce also released a report stating that global notebook shipments may fall by 9.2% year-on-year in 2026. However, Apple is one of the few brands that can achieve growth. TrendForce estimates that Apple’s notebook shipments will grow by 7.7% in 2026, driving macOS market share to 13.2%. Among them, Apple’s MacBook Neo model alone may account for 4 to 5 million unit shipments.
Supply chain layout and new product planning
In terms of supply chain, Quanta is currently the exclusive assembly plant for MacBook Neo, but Hon Hai is expected to become a second supplier in the near future. It is worth noting that Luxshare Precision is actively seeking New Product Introduction (NPI) for Neo 2.
Although the market had previously expected the Neo 2 to be equipped with a touch panel to compete with Chromebooks, the latest survey shows that the model may not adopt this configuration. In addition, Neo’s shipment momentum will increase quarter by quarter with the “back-to-school season” and the year-end peak season.
OLED screen evolution path
On the screen evolution path, Ming-Chi Kuo predicts that Apple will significantly upgrade its high-end product line MacBook Pro at the end of the fourth quarter of 2026 or early 2027, when it will adopt a touch OLED panel for the first time. In contrast, MacBook Air’s popularization of OLED panels is relatively late and is expected to wait until 2028 or 2029.
Apple’s “Dimensionality Reduction Strike” Strategy
From a macro-strategic perspective, Apple is taking advantage of the fluctuations in the memory market to implement “dimensionality reduction strikes.” Since the low-cost memory inventory reserved by Windows competitors in 2025 will be exhausted in the first half of 2026, most Windows manufacturers may increase selling prices starting in the second quarter of 2026 to reflect the rising costs. Apple relies on its strong cost absorption capabilities to maintain price competitiveness and aims to take advantage of the chaos to expand market share.
This strategy of “emphasis on market share and light on short-term gross profit” is not only reflected in MacBook Neo, but also applies to iPhone 17e. Ming-Chi Kuo believes that as long as Apple’s hardware market share continues to grow, it will drive the simultaneous expansion of its high-gross-margin services business. In the longer term, when on-device AI applications explode, Apple, with its huge installed base, will become the biggest industry beneficiary.
Pricing strategy to seize the market
MacBook Neo opened for pre-order on March 4, with a starting price of only US$599 (starting at NT$19,900), targeting the mainstream market range of US$500 to US$800, which is usually dominated by Windows laptops and Chromebooks. With the education discount, the starting price of Neo has dropped to $499, which is well below the $1,000 threshold that the MacBook product line has started for many years.
TrendForce analysis points out that Apple is able to lower prices even as component costs rise, thanks to its self-developed chips and standardized product specifications. Customized Apple chips reduce dependence on external CPU suppliers, and Apple’s centralized memory configuration also gives it stronger bargaining power. This is in stark contrast to Windows OEMs, whose product portfolios are more fragmented and more difficult to manage costs when component costs fluctuate. The only possibility for consumers to consider depends on whether consumers will not pay for the Macbook Neo with only 8GB of memory. After all, Neo itself does not have the option of RAM upgrade, but consumers have not paid for the 8 GB RAM of the previous generations of M1 to M3, so the impact may not be big (if you care, you will not buy the Neo series).
Source: KOCPC Chinese