The finale of Nintendo’s recent Nintendo Direct was the announcement of the remake of “The Legend of Zelda: Ocarina of Time” that fans have been waiting for for many years. Logically speaking, it should be a successful launch. However, after the direct meeting, Nintendo’s stock price not only did not rise, but plummeted by more than 7%, and once fell by more than 8%, as low as 7,103 yen, the largest drop in recent times. If calculated based on this year so far, Nintendo’s stock price has fallen by more than 30%. This is already the second time Nintendo’s stock price has plummeted in just a few months. The last time this happened was when the Switch 2 price increase was announced, it plummeted 12%. This time, investors voted with their feet for a clear reason: the direct meeting lacked a “killer” first-party new game that could drive Switch 2 sales during this year’s holiday season.
Ocarina of Time remake finally debuts, but investors want Mario
This face-to-face meeting actually had a lot of content. Nintendo has announced the remake of “The Legend of Zelda: Ocarina of Time”. This 1998 N64 classic will be exclusively available on Switch 2 with a new look, but the official release date has not been announced. Ocarina of Time has long been selected by major media as one of the greatest games in history, and the news of the remake really sparked heated discussions in the player community.
However, other content before the finale also includes “Kingdom Hearts IV”, “Xenoblade Chronicles: Genisys” (not expected to be released until 2027), “Fire Emblem: Weave of Fate”, “Paintball Battle: Raiders”, Capcom’s new game “Onimusha: Sword Path”, and a new game in the “Rhythm of Heaven” series. In addition, paid DLC expansion content for “Pokémon Pokopia” has been announced. Overall, the lineup is rich.
But the problem for investors is one key absence: a new 3D Mario title. At this point, one year after the launch of Switch 2, at a critical moment when flagship software is urgently needed to boost sales, Nintendo has failed to deliver a masterpiece that is enough to convince parents and casual players to spend money on the new console. Bloomberg reported that analysts believe that Nintendo’s first-party game lineup this year is too weak and lacks top IPs such as “Super Mario”. This situation is quite rare in the history of Nintendo console releases. In the past, Nintendo has always been able to bring exclusive masterpieces that players “cannot refuse” in the early stages of the release of new consoles, but this time the game lineup for the holiday season obviously failed to meet market expectations.
Mainly remakes and transplants, new IP masterpieces are absent
Taking stock of the content structure of this face-to-face meeting, we can see where the problem lies. The game lineup of the entire conference was mainly remastered versions, cross-platform ports and sequels of existing series, with a low proportion of new flagship first-party games. The Ocarina of Time remake is certainly topical, but as a refurbished version of a 28-year-old game, investors are obviously skeptical about whether it can attract new players to buy Switch 2 during the holiday season.
In addition, “Xenoblade Chronicles: Genesis” is not expected to be released until 2027 and will not be able to contribute to Switch 2 software sales this year. Most third-party games (such as “007: First Time”, etc.) have previously been launched on PC and other console platforms, and their exclusive appeal to Switch 2 is limited. Analysts pointed out that the lineup at the face-to-face meeting “has more familiar content than new flagship experiences.” In the eyes of the capital market, this means that Switch 2 lacks sufficient software promotion power during this year’s most important sales season.
Switch 2 hardware is selling like hot cakes, but whether the software lineup can keep up is a concern
Interestingly, the hardware sales performance of Switch 2 is actually quite impressive. According to financial report data released by Nintendo, since its launch on June 5, 2025, the cumulative sales of Switch 2 have reached 19.86 million units, with sales of 3.5 million units achieved within four days of launch. Nintendo’s revenue in its last fiscal year reached 527.2 billion yen and net profit was 102.9 billion yen, both significantly exceeding market expectations, with revenue increasing by more than 90% year-on-year.
However, the contradiction between hot sales of hardware and falling stock prices reflects the market’s concerns about the subsequent software ecology. It has been announced that the price of Switch 2 will be increased in many countries around the world starting in September 2026 (a US$50 increase in the United States and effective on May 25 in Japan). Coupled with the increase in parts costs, if software sales cannot keep up with the hardware base, profit pressure will continue to increase. The dual pressure of weak software sales and rising hardware prices is why investors reacted so violently to this direct meeting.
Next step for Nintendo: When will Mario appear?
The current focus of the market is when Nintendo will announce a new Mario game. There has been speculation that the game may have been in development, but Nintendo chose not to reveal it until closer to release. Past practice shows that in the past, new games in the Mario series were usually released simultaneously with the release of new consoles. If they cannot be launched within this year, spring 2027 may be a reasonable time point.
Before that, whether the Ocarina of Time remake can fill the software gap during the holiday season will be a test that Nintendo must face in the short term. There is no doubt that this remake of a classic will appeal to older gamers, but it remains to be seen whether the design of the game from 28 years ago will resonate with younger generations who have never been exposed to N64-era games. Investors are looking forward to a brand new work that will make all Switch 2 owners “must buy”. Although the remake of the classic is full of emotions, there is still a gap in commercial logic. This face-to-face meeting may once again prove one thing: for the capital market, feelings cannot replace sales figures. What Nintendo needs is a system-level masterpiece that can truly drive console popularity, rather than just relying on memory kills to support the scene.
Source: KOCPC Chinese